Philippe Welti, the former Swiss ambassador in Tehran and current president of the Swiss-Iranian chamber of commerce, explains the dilemma facing all globally active firms that do business with the second-biggest economy in the Middle East.
Whatever happens now in the exporting industries will just be a weighing of risks: either give up business in Iran, or risk hefty fines and feel the long arm of US economic power, he says.
“This calculation is usually made pretty quickly by most companies,” he adds, noting that an increasing number of European companies are leaving Iran. “One member of our chamber of commerce said to me ‘we can still deliver one machine that was paid in advance, but after that, it’s over.’”
Switzerland and the EU are powerless, even if they have loudly declared the sanctions to be invalid, the Iran expert says. Trump has no consideration for the interests of others, not even his allies.
“The US is trying to apply American law worldwide,” Welti said. “Because this is not legally possible, they are achieving it with economic clout. This power grab is aimed at completely isolating Iran. And that can only succeed if the whole world applies sanctions.”
The sanctions are even more problematic for companies that have invested in Iran and have industrial bases there that can’t be wound down in three months. These companies are in a bind – just like the Swiss train builder, which would have liked to sell 120 trains to Iran but doesn’t want to give up its American market.
Iran won’t be able to wait long for Swiss companies, especially as “China jumps into every vacuum that opens. The Chinese are constantly increasing the quality of their industrial products,” Welti said.